

3.2 trillion is a stupid amount of money, but it isn’t all liquid. A 440 billion dollar hit (nearly 14%) would be very, very bad for them.
With the memory and SSD fiasco going on right now, fewer people are buying new PCs, which impacts their sales. Combined with the Windows 11 fiasco, the massive gaming division investments going nowhere, and the AI bubble, they’re probably the most vulnerable they’ve been in decades.

OEM licensing isn’t the important part. It’s everything that comes with it. Subscriptions, cloud storage, etc. In my city, a bunch of field workers are being moved from laptops to iPads and phones with the next hardware refresh due to the price jump in laptops. Microsoft won’t have integrated Onedrive and SharePoint and full Office Subscriptions for them.
We already use third-party web apps that aren’t Microsoft (and are mostly hosted by AWS) for a lot of their work, so the only Microsoft product they’ll have is an email address.
Us abandoning the Windows laptops costs Microsoft hundreds a year per employee.